" /> Who Can Really Say?: October 2004 Archives

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October 31, 2004

Fan, Meet Blade


With the feces about to hit the oscillating blade in just over 48 hours, here's a bunch of links.

KERRY WINS: Or rather, the Packers beat the Redskins in Washington, and if trends hold, that means the incumbent is out and the challenger is in. I know at least one 'Skins fan who's delighted.

BUSH WINS: According to Scott Ott, with a little help from the Supremes.

BUSH WINS: Newsweek says things are breaking for Bush.

IT'S TIED: Zogby disagrees.

PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!: Osama admits Al Qaeda is hurting.
Officials said that in the 18-minute long tape ? of which only six minutes were aired on the al-Jazeera Arab television network in the Middle East on Friday ? bin Laden bemoans the recent democratic elections in Afghanistan and the lack of violence involved with it.

On the tape, bin Laden also says his terror organization has been hurt by the U.S. military's unrelenting manhunt for him and his cohorts on the Afghan-Pakistani border.
INDEED: Instapundit.
READER DAVID FROST emails that he used to not be able to figure out where I stood politically, and that he's disappointed to see me abandoning ambiguity to support Bush. Well, Bush isn't my ideal candidate, but elections are about making choices and being counted. I've chosen to support Bush because the Democrats have left me with no choice, given the importance I place upon the war. And I'm damned unhappy with them for doing that.
KERRRY WINS: Electoral-vote.com has it Kerry283, Bush 246.

BUSH WINS: ElectoralProjection.com has it Bush 286, Kerry 252 in it's tracking numbers, but issues a final state-by state prediction of Bush 356, Kerry 182.

BUSH WINS: Vodkapundit posts a map that tracks the TradeSports.com state by state numbers -- Bush 286, Kerry 252.

IT'S TIED: Fox News agrees with Zogby.

BUSH WINS (take THAT Redskins): From today's WaPo.
Since 1956 the Weekly Reader has polled its student subscribers, and the result has anticipated the election's outcome 11 out of 12 times. This year over 60 percent picked President Bush, and although a rival student poll by Nickelodeon produced the opposite result, the margin was smaller. Commenting on this troubling discrepancy in the data, Goldman Sachs advised its clients, "We tend to favor Weekly Reader given its longer track record and the fact that its participants tend to be younger and more reflective of their parents who will actually be making the decision."
TAKE A POLL: The Mystery Pollster asks readers to take his own poll. In other news, he announces a new voter for the 2022 Congressional elections. And yes, voters are kinda sorta breaking.

REPUBLICANS SHOULD VOTE FOR KERRY!: Whizbang finds a silver lining in a Kerry victory.

IT'S TIED: Real Clear Politics doesn't pick a clear winner.

And what do I think? Sheez, but I don't have a friggin' clue. Or is that fricken' clue? Help me out here -- throw me a bone!

Rockism and Reality


Kelefa Sanneh rips apart "rockism" in today's NYT. I'm not surprised I hadn't heard the term before. Her springboard was last week's appearance by Ashlee Simpson on SNL, where she was caught lip synching to a song.
One of 2004's most popular new stars had been exposed as. ...

As what, exactly? The online verdict came fast and harsh, the way online verdicts usually do. A typical post on her Web site bore the headline, "Ashlee you are a no talent fraud!" After that night, everyone knew that Jessica Simpson's telegenic sister was no rock 'n' roll hero - she wasn't even a rock 'n' roll also-ran. She was merely a lip-synching pop star.

Music critics have a word for this kind of verdict, this knee-jerk backlash against producer-powered idols who didn't spend years touring dive bars. Not a very elegant word, but a useful one. The word is rockism, and among the small but extraordinarily pesky group of people who obsess over this stuff, rockism is a word meant to start fights. The rockism debate began in earnest in the early 1980's, but over the past few years it has heated up, and today, in certain impassioned circles, there is simply nothing worse than a rockist.
Got that? "Producer-powered" idols? I thought "no talent fraud" handled the matter quite well. After all, what exactly is her talent if she isn't actually singing? Is the point to simply look alternately cool and hot? Sanneh's only just started. Later she tries to reconcile things.
The challenge isn't merely to replace the old list of Great Rock Albums with a new list of Great Pop Songs - although that would, at the very least, be a nice change of pace. It's to find a way to think about a fluid musical world where it's impossible to separate classics from guilty pleasures. The challenge is to acknowledge that music videos and reality shows and glamorous layouts can be as interesting - and as influential - as an old-fashioned album.
To Sanneh, a fluid musical world is a world where people who can't sing get to pretend to sing. No, the challenge is to pretend that music videos, reality shows, and glamorous layouts can be interesting or influential.
Rockism makes it hard to hear the glorious, incoherent, corporate-financed, audience-tested mess that passes for popular music these days. To glorify only performers who write their own songs and play their own guitars is to ignore the marketplace that helps create the music we hear in the first place, with its checkbook-chasing superproducers, its audience-obsessed executives and its cred-hungry performers. To obsess over old-fashioned stand-alone geniuses is to forget that lots of the most memorable music is created despite multimillion-dollar deals and spur-of-the-moment collaborations and murky commercial forces. In fact, a lot of great music is created because of those things
Yeah but that's the point, isn't it? They were geniuses, right? Why shouldn't folkls complain that there's a lack of genius around when instead we've got an aptly described "glorious, incoherent, corporate-financed, audience-tested mess that passes for popular music these days". Good music doesn't have to pass some sort of "rockism" authenticity test. It has to pass a musical authenticity test. Is she playing that instrument? Is he singing that song? How simple does it get?

If I read her right, she's saying: "It doesn't matter if she can't sing" but can she really mean that? Sanneh's not against rockism. She's against singism.

Election Guides and the Porcelain Honda


Via N.Z. Bear I found this page from Edison Media Research -- a viewer's guide to watching the election coverage on Tuesday night. The key advice?
Plan your bathroom breaks between :50 and :58 of each hour.
Dammit! Now I've got to reschedule everything! Seriously, careful and avid readers will recall I'm a multitasking sitzpinkler, so I'm not too concerned with this advise. And even more seriously (if that's possible), there's lot's of interesting stuff in the guide, so go read it. Now.

Or if you prefer, print it out and read it while riding the porcelain Honda.

Having it Both Ways


Tom Friedman yearns today for the good old days and the good old Bush.
The alliance that Mr. Bush, Brent Scowcroft and James A. Baker III built to drive Saddam out of Kuwait had so many allies it virtually turned a profit for America. Mr. Bush chose not to invade Baghdad in 1991. Right or wrong, he felt that had he tried, he would have lost the coalition he had built up to evict Saddam from Kuwait.
These sentences perfectly capture the "damned if you do and damned if you don't" reviews of Gulf War I. International coalition? Good. Didn't oust Saddam? Bad. Couldn't have had one without the other? Don't bother me with trivialities, son, I'm on a roll.

Friedman recounts this bit of recent history to compare and contrast it with current times. Bush 43, of course, had no coalition. Well, that's not true -- he had a coalition, just not the right one -- which is to say he didn't have a coalition backed by firm, no nonsense UN ResolutionsTM, even though such resolutions were not forthcoming regardless of who held the White House, and even though there's no reason to think they'd actually make a difference anyway. (See what I mean by damned if you do and damned if you don't?)

Friedman ignores changed conditions when compairing the fall/winter of 1990-1991 and the same period 13 years later. He ignores thirteen years of European military influence on the wane; thirteen years of increasing separation of Europe from the foreign policy goals and values of the US; thirteen years of most European countries distancing themselves from Israel's life and death struggle with Palestinian terrorists. Folks love to throw "squandered" good will in Bush's face, but the truth of that will is that it was never as good as advertised, and when put to the test was found wanting.

The critics of Bush 41 got it both ways. They got their coalition and it handcuffed us enough so that post Gulf War I Iraq became an open sore that was all our fault because Saddam was left in power. Today, they bitch and moan about Bush 43's lack of diplomatic skill in putting together a coalition, even though it was the presence of such a coalition years earlier that directly placed us in the position we're in today.

Don't get me wrong -- I wasn't against the efforts of Bush 41 to build as broad an alliance as he could. But if nothing else that experience proved broad alliances are imperfect at best, and that alliances composed of actual allies are probably best of all.

And then there's this choice nugget:
He [Bush 41] obviously believed that the U.S. should never invade an Arab capital without a coalition that contained countries whose support mattered in that part of the world, such as France, Egypt, Syria or Saudi Arabia.
You'll have to pardon my francaise here, but if Gulf War I proved anything it's that we need alliances with Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia and yes, France, like we need oh -- I don't know -- hijacked passenger jets flying into buildings?

October 29, 2004

No Wonder Nixon Liked the Redskins


Keith Olberman just put up some interesting numbers -- in the last 17 Presidential elections dating back to 1936, the winner of the Washington Redskins last home game before the elction has conincided with the Presidential election results. If the 'Skins win, the incumbent or the incumbent's party wins. If the 'Skins lose, well you get the picture. Sunday at 1:00 PM, the Redskins take on the Packers and are 2 to 2.5 point underdogs. Olberman coyly noted that's within the margin of error. Well, a field goal anyway.

No word yet on whether Karl Rove has been informed, or whether John Kerry will be joining the squad that plays it's home games at Lambert Field.

And the winner is . . .


Jane Galt finally decides.

Beating the Crowd


Ann Althouse, got to John Kerry's rally in Madison, WI late yesterday but still managed to get within 40 feet of the candidate:
At that point, the loudspeakers were playing Starship-type 80s rock, and it was none too entertaining. I took some pictures and started to walk away, but after a few blocks, I saw a path down a side street to walk in much closer, so I went back and got some more pictures. . . . All right, enough of that. I walked away again, heading back toward the Law School, and, I saw another nice opening, down a pretty, leafy street, that would take me right up to the back of the stage, so I walked back just as John Kerry was coming out and beginning his speech. Despite the crowd of 80,000 (to take Governor Doyle's number as the fact), which packed the streets for blocks, I got within 40 feet of John Kerry and was able to photograph him.
The pictures are here. Oh, and another one here.

I wasn't there of course, but if I'd been one of the folks in this picture and then read how easily Althouse got close to the stage I'd have been pissed.

October 28, 2004

Playing the Lawyer Card


Back on the 13th I blogged about Bill O'Reilly's new lawsuit, (latest in a series?). Well, it's all over now, and Beldar has an insightful review of what probably happened.

O'Reilly seems to play his lawyer card as frequently as Mattie Ross did with J. Noble Daggett. But in O'Reilly's case, I don't think even the fearsome Daggett would be of much help.

October 27, 2004

What Else Do You Need to Know?


James Lileks v. Andrew Sullivan.
[Sullivan]: He knows that if he [Kerry] lets his guard down and if terrorists strike or succeed anywhere, he runs the risk of discrediting the Democrats as a party of national security for a generation

[Lileks]: Is it instructive to note which side Sen. Kerry instinctively inhabited in the 80s? Apparently not. Because now he knows that if terrorists strike, he runs the risk of discrediting his party. Got that? Runs the risk. Of discrediting his party. Of all that the theats he might face, apparently that's the one that seals the deal. Look: The guy voted against the first Gulf War. What else do you need to know?? UN thumbs up, global test, allies coming out the wazoo, and he voted no. Because that?s who he is. There are lots of Democrats with hard-core pro-defense no-nonsense smite-the-fascist records. He ain't one of them. One might reasonably assume he would only commit US forces unless they were under the command of the Vulcans, and only then if the Federation High Council had given up on the Organians coming in and making everyone?s guns disappear in their hands. If they don't? Back the Sandinistas and hope for the best.

Amen


Remember Napoleon?s words to the wise: ?If you start to take Vienna ? take Vienna.?

October 26, 2004

We Are All Screwed


The other day I mentioned how tight the polls have been.

Now, the increasingly estimable Mystery Pollster points to this, which while reinforcing how tight the race is, also puts a whack upside the head of those of us who've been sweating the tracking polls.
So does it make sense to monitor the daily movements of these tracking polls? The answer is that if you?re hoping to learn something about real trends in support for the presidential candidates, it probably doesn?t make sense. That?s because there is no correlation between the day-to-day movements of the four tracking polls. In other words, they don?t move together?each poll?s movements are unrelated to all of the other polls? movements. For example, the average correlation between the daily movements of the Zogby Poll and the daily movements of the other three polls is -.18. The average correlation for the Rasmussen Poll is -.07, the average correlation for the TIPP Poll is -.09, and the average correlation for the Washington Post/ABC News Poll is -.12. The combined average for all four tracking polls is -.11. These weak negative correlations mean that there is actually a slight tendency for the polls to move in opposite directions.

What these results indicate is that the day-to-day movements of the tracking polls are essentially random. Rather than reflecting real shifts in voter preferences, the day-to-day movements of the tracking polls are simply reflecting sampling error. This doesn?t mean that the overall results of these polls are wrong. In fact, the average margin between George Bush and John Kerry in the tracking polls has been very close to the average margin in other recent national polls. It just means that the day-to-day shifts in the tracking polls are probably not real and that the real level of support for George Bush and John Kerry within the electorate has not changed over the past few weeks: the presidential race has been very close since the beginning of October and it is likely to remain that way until Election Day.
It's a tie. Jane Galt may pray, but we are all screwed.

Is it a Bug or a Feature?


Why is it that come every fourth November as we choose a candidate to support, so many toss their hands in the air in frustration as neither candidateever seems fills the bill? As I look back on my previous votes for President (dating to 1976, and in only one contest did I vote for the loser) I have to say I've done that myself each time. I've thought about it over the years, and while I don't mean to damn with faint praise, I've come to realize in a very practical way that in regards to this complaint, our two-party system shares a secret motto with Microsoft's XP programming team: It's a feature, not a bug.

The winner take all structure of our electoral system forces disparate factions to gel around opposing poles. Parliamentary systems give voters the chance to vote for the issue of their choice and leave it up to the elected Parliament to figure out how those poles should align. But our system forces the voters to align the poles at the precinct, county, state, and national level. That's why third (or fourth or fifth) party candidacies, while far from infrequent, have never been successful in Presidential elections, although they've certainly had their influence.

Which brings me to the election, one week away, and and another encounter with this age old dilemna. Here's a decent description of it (via Vodkapundit):
Some might argue that I'm scoring the election "Bush 0, Kerry -1" and ask how that's different from "Bush 1, Kerry 0" (i.e., a vote for Bush). And in a sense it isn't different, except for the "mandate" factor (i.e., one less vote for Bush to invoke). And of course there's always the question of my conscience, which is the only reason one really votes anyway.

Yes, I might prefer Bush over Kerry, in the same way I might "prefer" being deaf to being blind. But that doesn't mean I have to shove an awl in my ear.
Some of my favorite bloggers have publicly dickered around with this choice. Daniel Drezner finally concluded he's voting for Kerry. Jane Galt has posted here, here, here, here, here, here, and here asking questions of each major candidates supporters in an effort to cut the baby in half.

And a month ago I got an email from my left-leaning former college roomate (and commenter here, Graxnable) who pretty much plays the snake to Bush's wombat (or is it the other way around?) every chance he gets, challenging me to consider everything else in addition to the War:
[B]ut again, I boldly ask where are the [WCRS] analyses of Kerry's and Bush's stance on these things (set against your own opinion on them, which your blog readers might actually be interested in:

The environment and how Bush is protecting it or hurting it
Our treatment of our veterans (cutting their benefits)
The balance of trade
Patriot Act and privacy
airport and ports (cargo container) security
gay marriage
separation of church and state
Ubiquitous cameras in public places
What to do about Social Security
the expiration of the weapons ban
taxes
the deficit
the availabilty of abortion
prayer in schools
teaching evolution vs. creationism
stem cell research
secrecy in our government
the possibility that we will need to reintroduce the draft
jobs going overseas
What should we do about Putin moving back in a dictator direction?
How we should approach Iran and North Korea
But that list is loaded, and it it doesn't distract me. I don't think Bush has been nearly as bad with his environmental polices or the Patriot Act as Graxnable does, and I think both candidates (and parties) generally have their head in the sand about Social Security and government spending. There are some things I dislike about Bush that we'd agree upon, but they aren't decisive. (Although I love his suggestion that my readers might like to know what I think on these things too -- especially considering how many of them exist -- but that's the optimism of a liberal for you).

No, the poles have aligned and the choices, again and as always, seem unsatisfying. There's no one to vote for that combines my personal sense of "kill the terrorist bastards" and "stop trying to run the country from Washington".

But given the circumstances, for me anyway, it all comes down to the Global War on Terror. In it's absence, I'd have another set of problems to consider, but it isn't absent and that's that. Anyone concerned about anything in the list above, anyone in either party, in my view can't avoid the fact that all of those problems become worse if we do not succeed in the GWOT. And so, the question is, which of Kerry or Bush will prosecute the War more succesfully.

On the one hand, I think Bush has properly identified the stakes. Critically, he understands that allies are only useful to the extent they are actually allied with us. He (and his team) get's a big plus for quickly resolving Afghanistan in our favor. He also gets a plus for taking the War to Iraq, which held a unique position amongst the most dangerous players in the world because it is situated smack in the middle of the Middle East and was controlled by an unpredictable and reprehensible tyrant and avowed enemy. There's no doubt in my mind that we did the world (and ourselves) a huge favor by taking the opportunity presented by the necessity for the War to move on Saddam aggressively. It was the right war, in the right place, at the right time.

John Kerry, on the other hand, gives me no sense of security in the knowledge that he views the War in the same way. His fetish for international agreement preceding action (that is, and let's all be clear about this -- getting Russia and China to vote with us in the UN Security Council) is a carefully calibrated bit of politcal crapola or, alternatively, pie in the sky romanticism. Kerry, we're told, will do "it" smarter, but after listening to him for months I have absolutely no idea what "it" is.

Which is a shame because smarter, or at least being quicker on our feet in post-war Iraq, could have been a blessing. As I've said before, though, by no means do I think our objectives in Iraq are lost.

But Kerry's long record of opposing Cold War weapons and opposing the first Gulf War (which, let's face it folks, was pretty much a no brainer to support, especially given Kerry's present elevation of international consensus to the be-all-and-end-all of our foreign policy), leaves me colder than a witches tit. He opposed the first Gulf War because he wanted to negotiate further with Saddam. He opposes now, he says, the timing of the invasion in 2003 for essentially the same reason -- we should have let the inspector's "do their job". International weapons inspectors are marvelous folks when those being inspected allow them to do their job. Saddam never did, and there's no reason to believe he was about to change. One of the things I like about Bush is that he handled the pre-war build up well -- he "consulted" and he "negotiated" in the UN -- he did it all. And when they balked, he walked. John Kerry says he knows a balk when he sees one too, but seeing as he's made a living taking his foot off the mound I don't believe him.

As the primary campaign heated up in the months following the Iraq invasion it became pretty clear that even if Kerry had firm convictions that the war was the right thing to do, he couldn't win the Democratic nomination by following those convictions. So he was either right, but dithered on the point to win votes and defeat Howard Dean, or he was wrong all along. Kerry wants this stuff both ways and for all I know (and hope!) if he's elected he'll show us he means what he's saying half the time.

Last, half of the criticism of the handling of post-invasion Iraq has irritated the hell out of me. How would present day war critics have handled the fact that we sent thousands of soldiers to die in death traps during WWII? More than one thousand soldiers have died in Iraq and Afghanistan. How do you say, in the grand scheme of war, that 1,000 isn't all that many if you think about it for a moment? Democrats, that is post-Vietnam Democrats, can't. Life isn't cheap, and war is hell, but if all you talk about is the former you'll never be able to conduct the latter.

So what's my problem then with Bush? Well I'm not a social conservative and not really a conservative at all, at least as that term is defined by conservatives themselves. Along those lines I don't know what the hell Bush is -- if anything he's to conservatives what Clinton was to liberals. He throws them bones now and then, but crosses the line when he can gain political advantage. Clinton was more deft at it, but you can't tell me that Clinton's support for welfare reform or the Communications Decency Act weren't similar in this sense to Bush's trade protectionism, or drug bill. So I'm not a Bush man in the sense that if you took Graxnable's list above I'd agree with Bush's take on alot of them.

So what's my problem with Bush, I ask again? It's some of that, I supposed. But for me it comes down to this: too often in the War's execution he and his team have tried to be too clever by half. Were Kerry a believable supporter of the War that would cause me problems. But he isn't, and so I've got to say that bug or feature, I'm probably more comfortable voting for Bush than I've ever been voting for Ford, Reagan twice, Bush I, Clinton twice, or GWB in 2000.

What happened to the bug?

[Linked to Outside the Beltway.]

October 25, 2004

What's the Buzz . . . Tell Me What's a Happenin'


The blogosphere is abuzz today with two stories. The NYT reports that 380,000 tons of explosives previously inspected and sealed by the IAEA in January 2003 are missing. And the less reputable (although gaining) Washington Times says John Kerry exaggerated when he said he met with all members of the UN Security Council before the invasion of Iraq. (I say gaining not so much because the WT is getting better but that the NYT is closing the gap by getting worse.)

If you'd like to see a cross-section of links, try Memorandum and click away at the top two stories.

As for me, the Kerry story is icing on a cake that now has more icing than cake, I think. And as for the munitions, I'm still trying to figure out when they were removed from the site. If they were not there when US forces arrived, then there's not much to the story, is there? Bush's defenders are asking this question but I don't have a sense that there's a good answer yet. Kerry's supporters don't ask the question at all, taking the NYT's implication (as that's all it is, at face value). Tonight NBC Nightly News closed their story on the subject, for what it's worth, with Jim Miklashevski suggesting the IAEA may have released the story at this time because of a feud with the Bush Administration.

We know explosive were there because inspectors saw them in January '03 and put labels/stickers/seals on them, to identify the goods and (heh heh) warn the Iraqi's not to move them. When US forces got there after the war started, they didn't see anything that was sealed and moved on. (Obi Wan wave: "These aren't the weapons you're looking for".)

Does that mean the stuff was moved before the war? Does it mean it was all there but the Iraqi's removed the seals and we were fooled? I don't know.

I saw a similar analysis earlier today and now I can't find the post -- but the best case and worst case scenario combined? The explosives, which can be used to detonate nuclear weapons, are further proof that Bush was right to target Iraq. But then we screwed up and didn't secure them. Makes everyone both happy and unhappy at the same time, no?

Do Your Worst!


Glenn Reynolds, the Instapundit, is travelling and has enlisted Megan McArdle, Michael Totten, and Ann Althouse to guest blog while he's gone. McArdle writes today:
A tidbit for bloggers out there: if you've ever had the experience of being "instapundited", you'll know that your traffic (and your bandwith bills!) go through the roof whenever Glenn links to you. I've just had the odd experience of instapunditing myself in my first post here, which feels a little like one of those pictures you see of someone with mirrors both in front and behind them, looking into an infinitely receding series of their face and back . . .
Is that what it's like? Well here's a challenge to Megan, Michael and Ann -- LINK TO ME! Do it NOW! Crash my server! Do your worst, I can take it!

October 22, 2004

Controversy equals disruption


Too Late?


Who's on the cutting edge of making money through improvments in technology?

Over coffee yesterday, London VC, pal, and smart guy Rikki Tahta told me about a BBC series of wacky news reports he saw with a fascinating segment on the business of porn. The show said that as the cost of production has gone down -- thanks to inexpensive video equipment and software (sound familiar?) and no end of, ahem, citizen talent ... plus, no doubt, the advent of Viagra as a boost to worker productivity -- the video industry has been able to make more and more product for less and less money and distribute it directly to consumers via online at a lower and lower cost.
Is it too late to get into this porn business thing?

He won the election before he lost it?


I've long hoped (well for four years if that's long enough) that this election would produce a clear winner so that we can put this stolen election crap behind us. For the third time in the last 10 days Bush has approached or exceeded 49% in Rasmussens daily tracking polls, but each time before he's slid back. It's a tough call -- would I prefer an outright Kerry victory to one that is close enough for the Democrats to cry foul? I don't think the answer is yes, but it doesn't make me feel much better.

But the problem may be that the election has already been stolen -- which is to say -- if you're supposed to win and don't, what other explanation is there? I don't know who'll win the election, but I've got a problem with the notion that Kerry won the election before he lost it.

Why Bush Will Win: Genies are Better than Warlocks

Conversation in the household.

Me: [Laughs out loud at Kerry commercial].

Housemate: Bush said today that if you vote for him, since he's also a Genie, he'll give everyone three wishes. But Kerry responded by saying he's a Magic Warlock and if you vote for him he'll grant everyone four wishes.

Me: That just goes to show your political ignorance. Everyone knows Genies are more powerful than Warlocks and that three wishes from a Genie are better than four from a Warlock.

Housemate: Good. At least now we're discussing some serious topics with truth and facts involved.

[Linked to the Beltway Traffic Jam.]

October 21, 2004

A Stitch In Time Saves Nine


I feel Jane Galt's pain.

Countless friends (and few Yankees fans among them) told me when the Yanks were up 3-0 and 3-1, and even 3-2 and when it was tied, that there was no need to worry -- the Yanks would win. I told each of them that the BoSox were powerful vampires who rise from the dead, and that the only way to assure victory to to drive a wooden stake through their heart, preferably in the form of a Louisville Slugger.

Little did I know just how undead they were. From a comment to Jane's post, this:
Somewhere on a slab in Boston is a citizen of Red Sox Nation who actually gave his body to the cause.

With the team's future increasingly dependent on Curt Schilling's right leg, doctors decided to try an apparently unprecedented procedure to keep a tendon from slipping around in his ankle. But first, they wanted to test it out.

So they used a cadaver. No way to know if it was a Red Sox fan.

*****

The Red Sox training staff thought of various ways to keep the tendon in place. Special high-top shoes didn't work, and they hit upon the idea of sewing skin in Schilling's leg to the tissue underneath, creating a wall that would keep the tendon in place.

``It seems extreme. We couldn't find a case of it ever being done before,'' Epstein said. ``It was the best way to allow him to have his normal mechanics.''

Schilling had three stitches put in at about 2 p.m. on Monday, about 90 minutes before he tested his ankle on the bullpen mound in Fenway Park.

``If it didn't work, he's in the same situation he was before,'' manager Terry Francona said. ``We went out to the bullpen, he did pretty well without it. ... Schill kind of bought off on it, and they did it a day early to see if he could get used to it and let him get comfortable with it. And it certainly seemed to do the trick.''

Although there was some fluid and blood leaking through Schilling's sock on Tuesday night, Epstein could see after the first pitch that Schilling was throwing like normal.

The sutures were taken out after the game to avoid infection; if Schilling pitches again, they would be put back in. Epstein said there was no problem repeating the procedure a couple of more times.

``We only have one more series,'' he said. ``People think it's reasonable to do it a couple more times.''
I've heard that a stitch in time save nine, but this is ridiculous. Still, kudos to Red Sox for thinking outside the box.

[Linked to the Beltway Traffic Jam].

October 20, 2004

Jimmy Carter is an Idiot


Jimmy Carter was commonly portrayed by editorial cartoonist's as having a big smile with huge teeth. This was a mistake, since those teeth obviously were smaller -- at least small enough to permit him to stick his foot, 'nay his lower leg up to the knee, into his mouth.

Carter was interviewed last night on Nerfball Hardball, and came up with this gem:
MATTHEWS: Let me ask you the question about?this is going to cause some trouble with people?but as an historian now and studying the Revolutionary War as it was fought out in the South in those last years of the War, insurgency against a powerful British force, do you see any parallels between the fighting that we did on our side and the fighting that is going on in Iraq today?

CARTER: Well, one parallel is that the Revolutionary War, more than any other war up until recently, has been the most bloody war we?ve fought. I think another parallel is that in some ways the Revolutionary War could have been avoided. It was an unnecessary war.

Had the British Parliament been a little more sensitive to the colonial?s really legitimate complaints and requests the war could have been avoided completely, and of course now we would have been a free country now as is Canada and India and Australia, having gotten our independence in a nonviolent way.

I think in many ways the British were very misled in going to war against America and in trying to enforce their will on people who were quite different from them at the time.
Other's have pointed out the error (and it's not even a small one) about the relative bloodiness of the Revolutionary War. But for the unconvinced, try the tables here. To be fair, Carter said "up until recently" to qualify his remarks. So let's see how that works out. How recent? WWII with over a million casualties and over 400,000 dead? WWII stands still today as the beginning of the "modern era" in many ways, although arguably that's changing. How about WWI? 300,000 casualties and over 100,000 dead there. But that's a stretch to call it recent. Ahh -- we get to the Civil War, with at least 500,000 dead on both sides. By no account can the Civil War be considered recent.

Oh, and the terribly brutal Revolutionary War? 4,435 battle deaths, and another 6,200 or so wounded. Is it any wonder that the Dems sat Michael Moore next to Carter at the convention?

But it just gets better. Carter is correct that the initial friction between the Colonies and the Crown was that the Crown was treating the Colonies like, well, colonies, and the Colonists didn't much appreciate it. But saying today, 230 to 240 years after the fact that a lack of sensitivity underly the problem is so an atrocious historical error. Sensitivity in the sense he means it is a decidedly 20th Century creation. He's placing an early 21st Century patina over the world in the late 18th Century without basis. I'm sure the Roman's weren't particularly sensitive either, but viewing their ultimate defeat at the hands of the various and oh so sensitive Goths, Visigoths, etc., it isn't particularly helpful, is it?

But the very best part is next -- the British were misled(!) into war, against a "quite different" people! Benjamin Franklin spent over a decade in England trying mightily to get the Crown and Parliament to acknowledge that the Colonists were not different, and that if only the Brits would treat them similarly things could be worked out. Carter's living in a dream world. But you know, I'd never really considered the point -- maybe he's on to something. I wait with baited breath for Carter to explain all of the other misled wars, recent and otherwise.

Linked to the Beltway Traffic Jam.

October 19, 2004

Stupidity


Forget the flu virus. I think stupidity might be infectious.

Disclaimer


I saw this disclaimer on Instapundit last night but wasn't sure of the point at the time.
InstaPundit is not an unbiased news service. It consists entirely of my opinions and such links to factual items as I find interesting. Its whole purpose is as a vehicle for my biases, in fact. It is not unbiased and objective in any fashion, but rather is opinionated and slanted, much like other, more respectable, outlets such as The New York Times and TonyPierce.com.
Hmmmm. I'll have to remember this the next time one of my commenters complains that I didn't write about this or that.

Jeff Jarvis reveals the background.
I feel as if I had too much to drink at my own party and slept through all the good stuff. Well, I did have too much to drink (a nice cabernet, thank you; couldn't resist that last nip) and the party was happening in the comments here: I thought I was writing one of my high-altitude (low-oxygen) musings on the future of media but thanks to Tony, Glenn, and Oliver, it turned into late-night boozy brawl in the rec room. Well, not actually, but I enjoyed the image, didn't you?

To recap for those of us who slept it off last night, after my media musings in that post below, I said that commenters had called out Jon Stewart for hiding behind his comedy-show label when, in fact, he is a news provider and a critical member of the national conversation today. Tony Pierce then said in the comments I should call out Glenn Reynolds similarly because Glenn, he says, hides behind his I'm-not-a-news-service label. Oliver Willis piled on. Glenn responded to them here.
And he links to the quote I posted above. But Instapundit wasn't done, and takes down Oliver Willis in an update:
Meanwhile, further down in the comments, Oliver Willis calls me "partisan." In the sense of supporting a candidate, sure, since I pretty much gave up on Kerry quite a while ago, but not in the sense of supporting a party regardless of candidate. I'm not, you know, a paid flack for one party like, say, Oliver, and part of my disgust with the Democrats stems from their stubborn unwillingness to be serious about the war, or to tolerate candidates who are. If the Democrats had put forth somebody decent on this front I'd likely have voted for him/her. But it's not as if I pretend not to have opinions. I think that Oliver mistakes a reluctance to engage in name-calling with a facade of above-the-fray I-have-no-opinions "nonpartisanship." But in fact, it's possible to have opinions, even strong ones, and to express them in a non-abusive fashion. That's probably easy to forget when you work for David Brock, but I hope that he'll grow out of this confusion, eventually.
I might add (indeed, I am doing so now!) that Jarvis's original post about Stewart's appearance on CNN's Crossfire is well worth the read, and it has a link to the video which itself is well worth the watch. Stewart was hilarious, and there's nothing better than seeing stuffed network shirts get what's coming to them. But Jim Treacher had some fair shots at Stewart as well.

Serious Issues


James Joyner urges a return to serious campaign issues. I couldn't agree more.
Let's get back to the important issues, like flu shots and the sexual orientation of the Vice President's daughter.

Grit or Grin?


Daniel Drezner suggests a voting outcome I hadn't spent alot of time thinking about -- what if Gore wins the electoral college vote, but loses the popular vote?
Soooo..... here's some half-assed speculation that's perfect for this blog. What if both of these outcomes take place? Kerry might win a lot of the states Gore won, but by smaller amounts (see Tom Schaller for more on this). He'd lose the Red states by an even bigger margin than Gore did in 2000. However, in the battleground states like Ohio and Florida, Kerry would eke out enough votes to win them.

This leads to an intriguing possibility -- what are the odds that Kerry loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College? If that happened, how would both parties react? Would the Electoral College survive in its current form?
I don't know the answers to his questions, but I'm guessing at the very least it might cause one Democrat who's said to be poised to run in 2008 to grit her teeth -- or is that grin and bear it?

And follow the link in Drezner's update to a Slate article on five possible ways the election will end up in court.

October 18, 2004

Down the Stretch They Come


Does Bush have a lead? Will he fade like Smarty Jones in the stretch at the Belmont?

Last week I linked to the Mystery Pollster's take on whether after the final polls are taken before election day, undecided voters tend to move towards the challenger in Presidential elections. His main point:
None of this implies that the current standings will determine the final outcome. Where the race ends up a month from now could obviously be different. However, the incumbent rule tells us that, at any given moment, the President's percentage of the vote relative to 50% is a better indicator of where the race stands than the margin separating Bush and Kerry. It also suggests the appropriate way to read the final polls just before the election (and these are my ranges ? others may differ): If the average result of all the final polls (including undecided) puts Bush's percentage at 50% or higher, the President will likely win. If Bush's percentage is 48%-49%, the race is headed for a photo finish. At 47% or lower, the President will likely lose (add 1% to these ranges in any state where Ralph Nader is not on the ballot).

The main point: The incumbent's level of support is more important than the margin.
But James Joyner, linking to today's LA Times, is not impressed:
Hmm. Let's see. We have a whole series of polls showing Bush with a lead with two weeks to go. And yet the focus is on the fact that he's only slightly above a meaningless 50% threshhold? Because undecided voters typically rally for the challenger? Riiight.

*****

So, our data consists of eight cases, one of which was before television began to dominate political campaigns and only one of which takes place during the modern era of 24/7 news coverage? And all based on a single poll, Gallup? And, oddly, Gallup is the poll with Bush well over 50%?

It's also worth noting that four of the eight races in the sample involved substantial third party candidates, whose numbers are often quite volatile: conservative Democrat George Wallace in 1972, liberal Republican John Anderson in 1980, the highly popular Ross Perot in 1992, and a dimished Perot in 1996. Nader will apparently be a virtual non-factor in the national vote, given that he hovers in 1% range.

There are all sorts of reasons for Bush supporters to be worried in what continues to be a close race. This seems to be among the sillier, however.
On the other hand, James Lindgren accepts the "conventional wisdom" that undecideds move to the challenger, and says:
I don't disagree that the election is too close to call. What I do think is that, if the election were held today, it is slightly more likely that Kerry would win than Bush. But then the election will not be held today.
Where do we stand today? Rasmussen's daily tracking poll has it Bush 47.5, Kerry 47.3. Back on the 15th, he had it Bush 49, Kerry 45.5. On the 10th it was Bush 49.5 and Kerry 45.5. Real Clear Politics Poll Average has it Bush 49 and Kerry 45.3.

My gut feeling is that Bush needs to head into the election at 49 or higher to have a slight sense of comfort, however slight that might be. I appreciate Joyner's scepticism but think the Mystery Pollster is probably right that a wide Bush spread over Kerry come the last poll is not that meaningful if Bush isn't at are damn near 50%, or better. And all of this, of course, discounts the need to manage and calculate the polls in various battleground states, including the wild-card in the deck -- the CO referendum to game the election change the apportionment of its Presidential electors.

[Linked to the Beltway Traffic Jam.]

October 17, 2004

What He Said


What he said.

October 15, 2004

I'm Voting FOR Paralysis


I don't consider myself all that well informed about stuff like this, but I didn't know that WaPo columnist Charles Krauthammer is paralyzed. But now that I know, sheez I'd figure he'd be voting for Kerry. I mean, if electing the right Presidential candidate would get him back on his feet, you'd imagine he'd be chomping at the bit to pull that lever. It's just as John Edwards says:
If we do the work that we can do in this country, the work that we will do when John Kerry is president, people like Christopher Reeve are going to walk, get up out of that wheelchair and walk again.
Or not.

October 14, 2004

One for Two


I like to read Jeff Jarvis because he's a liberal with his feet on the ground. I don't always agree with him but his arguments often resonate with the side of me that likes to see a contrarian Democrat, seeing as I'm a contrarian Republican. Today he he's one for two at the plate.

Jeff wholeheartedly endorses the NY Times Op-Ed today, co-authored by publisher Arthur Ochs Sulzberger, defending Times reporter Judith Miller who may soon go to jail for "doing her job". This is a sweet rhetorical way of saying she won't honor a lawful federal subpoena, and it makes me wonder what exactly is her job. I'd love to see the description, which must go something like this: Report the news and flout the law. One of the points stressed in the Op-Ed is that Miller is being asked about a conversation she may have had but about which she never wrote a story. And this makes a difference why?

The Times' high-mindedness doesn't change the fact that there is no dispute about the law. Miller does not have any a First Amendment right to avoid responding to the subpoena, a fact that's conveniently avoided by the Times and by Jeff. Both make it sound like this is a terrible thing, so I suppose they support a different rule that goes something like this: You can't divulge national secrets, but if you divulge national secrets to a reporter we can't investigate it. Hey, your mileage may differ, but that works for me.

But Jarvis get's it right in his commentary today about Tom Friedman's Op-Ed (yes -- a busy day at the Times).

***

Sheez, and a busy night for me too. I was interrupted in the middle of this hours ago and now I've got to get it done. Jarvis is right, Friedman's wrong. Read them.

Jeez, but blogging sucks, doesn't it?

That's a Helluva Bat


One of my favorite experiences at a ballpark happened during Game 3 or 4 of the 1983 World Series between the Phillies and the Baltimore Orioles. As it happens, that's exactly 21 years ago to the day, depending upon whether it was Game 3 or 4, and whether it's today or tomorrow.

I'd scored two SuperBox seats along the third baseline at the now departed Veteran's Stadium. The box was two or three boxes down from the ABC broadcast booth behind home plate, and was occupied by among other luminaries, none other than Reginald Martinez Jackson.

So here's the deal. As the last out is made, I turn to my friend Craig and tell him I've got to visit the bathroom before we head out to the car. I hate lines and traffic jams, so I was ready to move and as soon as the game was over I bolted for the door, turned right and jogged to the closest men's room about 50 feet or less away. My desperate mission was accomplished -- there was no line and plenty of open urinals. So there I stand, doing my business as the room fills up and who takes the urinal to my left but Mr. October himself, wearing his yellow ABC blazer! I don't think Reggie cared much about the pending traffic, but he knew how to avoid a line too.

My punch line usually goes something like this: "I turned to Reggie and said 'Geez, Reggie! That's a helluva bat you've got there!'" Or whatever.

But I can assure you that nothing like this happened.

Link via Blackfive.

October 13, 2004

The Volokh Supremacy


Eugene Volokh's conspiracy reigns supreme today.

First, try Jim Lindgren's and Eugene's analysis of Bill O'Reilly's lawsuit for exortion. When I practiced law the "offensive-defensive" strategy, as I recall the term as it was used by one lawyer in the office in particular, was to respond to a threatened lawsuit by suing first. The best defense is a good offense -- that sort of thing. Given O'Reilly's embarrassing debacle suing Al Franken a while back, I hope for O'Reilly's sake (and that's not something I'm in the habit of doing) that he's got better counsel this time around.

Next, Eugene and then again, Lindgren, mull over the most recent stories about voter fraud. (Jim Lindgren is the newest member of the conspiracy and I guess I don't know him well enough to call him by his first name). We all, of course, fondly remember the excruciating Florida recount from four years ago. What most people don't remember though is that Bush lost New Mexico by 366 votes statewide, but there was no recount there. I'm not optimistic that come next month such a close election will get a pass, although I'm open at this point to the suggestion that we all go to New Mexico to vote.

And last, Orin Kerr links to a brief essay by Larry Sabato on the state of the Presidential Election. To that I'll add that the Mystery Pollster had a very intersting post last week on whether or not, and why, undecided voters do or don't break for the incumbent in Presidential elections. He updated the post here. Taken all together, Kerry is arguably in the drivers seat at the moment, although Mystery Pollster makes the important point that the break for the incumbent is measured against the last poll before the election, and not against polls three or four weeks before the election.

Scotty, We Need More Less Power Volume


Never let it be said that there is no music available for the hearing impaired.

Via Poliblog, thanks to Outside the Beltway.

October 12, 2004

An Educated Guess


Can't believe I'm blogging with the game in the 2nd inning, the Yanks holding a 2-0 lead, and a possible early exit for Curt Schilling.

But I came upon something and if I don't post it now, I know myself well enough to say I won't post it at all.

Mark Steyn had a column pulled for the first time in 8 years writing for the Telegraph. He prints the column here. This is his intro:
Today, for the first time in all my years with the Telegraph Group, I had a column pulled. The editor expressed concerns about certain passages and we were unable to reach agreement, so on this Tuesday something else will be in my space.

I?d written about Kenneth Bigley, seized with two American colleagues but unlike them not beheaded immediately. Instead, sensing that they could exploit potential differences within ?the coalition of the willing?, for three weeks the Islamists played a cat-and-mouse game with Mr Bigley?s life, in which Fleet Street, the British public, governments in London and Dublin and Islamic lobby groups in the United Kingdom were far too willing to participate. As I always say, in this war the point is not whether you?re sad about the dead people, but what you?re prepared to do about it. What ?Britain? ? from Ken Bigley?s brother to the Foreign Secretary ? did was make it more likely that other infidels will meet his fate.

I suppose the Telegraph felt the column was a little heartless. Well, this is a war, and misplaced mawkishness will only lead to more deaths. In The Face Of The Tiger, I wrote as follows about the first anniversary of 9/11, when coverage was threatening to go the way of Princess Di and mounds of teddy bears:

3,000 people died on September 11th, leaving a gaping hole in the lives of their children, parents, siblings and friends. Those of us who don't fall into those categories are not bereaved and, by pretending to be, we diminish the real pain of those who really feel it. That's not to say that, like many, I wasn't struck by this or that name that drifted up out of the great roll-call of the dead. Newsweek's Anna Quindlen "fastened on", as she put it, one family on the flight manifest:

Peter Hanson, Massachusetts

Susan Hanson, Massachusetts

Christine Hanson, 2, Massachusetts

As Miss Quindlen described them, "the father, the mother, the two-year old girl off on an adventure, sitting safe between them, taking flight." Christine Hanson will never be three, and I feel sad about that. But I did not know her, love her, cherish her; I do not feel her loss, her absence in my life. I have no reason to hold hands in a "healing circle" for her. All I can do for Christine Hanson is insist that the terrorist movement which killed her is hunted down and prevented from targeting any more two-year olds. We honour Christine Hanson's memory by righting the great wrong done to her, not by ersatz grief-mongering.

That?s the way I feel about Kenneth Bigley. Here?s the column the Telegraph declined to publish:
Steyn's column is fundamentally right about this, although I can pretty much guess why the Telegraph pulled it. My other guess, though, is that although obvious political considerations intervene with him saying so, George Bush would also pretty much agree. But why should I think John Kerry does too? I can't think of a reason off the top of my head, unimpeded as I might be in such endeavors by much hair.

Via many, but reminded by Instapundit -- and his link to the Belmont Club is also worth the time.

Ahhh, to be young again


I don't remember when I first heard about a bad thing that was attributed to the bad guy because he was "copying" what he'd seen on TV or the movies.

In the newest installment, James Joyner notes this from the UPI via the Washington Times:
A 10-year-old boy, who allegedly threatened to behead 7-year-old classmate Nathan Williams outside their school in Dudley, England, has been expelled.
All righty then!

Maybe I just didn't see this stuff reported when I was 10 years old. All I wanted back then was a briefcase for Christmas. How much damage could I have done? Or were there 10 year olds back then installing rocket launchers in cars?

Procrastinations


I've been characteristically procrastinating mulling over how and what to post more broadly about the issues separating the candidates in this election, but Jonah Goldberg just made half the job that much easier.
I'm not saying there are no good arguments against the war. I am saying that many of you don't care about the war. If Bill Clinton or Al Gore had conducted this war, you would be weeping joyously about Iraqi children going to school and women registering to vote. If this war had been successful rather than hard, John Kerry would be boasting today about how he supported it ? much as he did every time it looked like the polls were moving in that direction. You may have forgotten Kerry's anti-Dean gloating when Saddam was captured, but many of us haven't. He would be saying the lack of WMDs are irrelevant and that Bush's lies were mistakes. And that's the point. I don't care if you hate George W. Bush; it's not like I love the guy. And I don't care if you opposed the war from day one. What disgusts me are those people who say toppling Saddam and fighting the terror war on their turf rather than ours is a mistake, not because these are bad ideas, but merely because your vanity cannot tolerate the notion that George W. Bush is right or that George W. Bush's rightness might cost John Kerry the election. [Emphasis added.]
Seriously, (especially you Graxnable), read it all.

And I can only add, given Goldberg's dissection of the debate on the War, why should John Kerry be trusted with a) completing the work to be done in Iraq and b) figuring out what to do next?

Free bottle of Grey Goose to Vodkapundit.

Let's Get Ready to Rumble


The matchup Major League Baseball and Fox Sports have been hoping and praying for begins in a few hours -- the Yankees vs. the Red Sox for the American League Pennant. After last year's ALCS and the off-season Arod chronicles, it's nice to see everyone get what they wanted (except of course for the Angels and the Twins).

Anyway, here's the prediction I shared today with some friends at work and via an email:
Yankees in 7 games. Bernie Williams will come to bat in the 16th inning of the deciding game with the scored tied and the bases loaded, and less than 2 outs. He'll execute a perfect squeeze bunt, and from here on out it will not only be Bucky and Boone, but Bernie's Bunt as well that will haunt the Boston Beaneaters.
Not to be outdone, my email correspondent prognisticated otherwise:
I predict that numerous fights will break out (practically one every inning), and there will be so many injuries sustained both at the Stadium and in Boston, such that both teams will be decimated, and will have to call on former retired players to put on the uniform and finish the thing out. Further, Luis Tiant will be brought in to pitch in the 16th inning of the 7th game with Sox up by a run and one out, and Joe Pepitone representing the tieing run on third, with Clete Boyer on first. Horace Clark will come to bat, and will, true to form, ground feebly into a series-ending double play. Tiant will injure a hamstring on the very pitch by trying to duplicate his famous leg kick. (Members of the Rockettes will laugh about this pathetic leg kick later, ruefully, as they are all Yankees fans.)

After the World Series (which the Cards will win over the Bosox, with Bob Gibson pitching, as Yaz pops up for the final out), Bud Selig will put togther a blue-ribbon panel to conduct a symposium for both the Sox and the Yankees and their fans on how to get along better. It will be run by a team of Palestinians and Israelis, and will be facilitated by the LA police officers who beat up Rodney King.
Well, anything's possible, but I think my prediction is much much much more realistic.

For a more likely view of the possibilities, try Dave Pinto here and here, although he too takes a flight of fancy, Star Wars style.

The general consensus seems to be that the Sox have a somewhat stronger team than the Yanks and I can't argue with that. But were it the other way around, with the Yanks enjoying that paper edge, I'd take little solace from that fact. The teams remain closely matched by any standard, and their history suggests it will be a tight competitive series.

The Pinto links are courtesy of Daniel Drezner.

[Linked to the Beltway Traffic Jam.]

October 10, 2004

Eye of the Beholder


Late last summer NYT Public Editor Daniel Okrent took on the question of whether the Times was a "liberal paper" and answered "Of course it is." At that time he promised a review of the paper's campaign coverage, and he kicks that off in today's paper. He spends the bullk of the essay on what I'll call the eye off the beholder problem. Okrent's email it seems, is proof positive (to paraphrase Lincoln) that you can't please all of the people, all of the time.

SEPTEMBER 26, re "Kerry as the Boss: Always More Questions": Faith C. McCready thinks "the Kerry campaign ought to be paying The Times a consultant/advertising fee" for the article. Scott Libbey of Chevy Chase, Md., calls it "another negative article on Kerry," and concludes: "I don't know how you guys can look at yourselves in the mirror anymore. I really don't."

October 5, regarding a few stories: From Michael Malone of Darien, Conn., "I know that many of the Times reporters and editors are breathlessly trying to get Kerry elected." And from John Owens of San Francisco, "I often won't read your paper because of the relentless pounding on Kerry."

Al Markel of San Francisco asks why The Times hasn't reviewed the anti-Kerry "Unfit for Command" while Samuel Leff of Manhattan wonders why Justin Frank's critical psychoanalytic study, "Bush on the Couch," has been ignored by the Book Review editors. Francis Moynihan of Avon, Conn., congratulates The Times's Web site for "finally, a headline critical of Kerry" that uses the word "pander"; John Owens objects, saying that "a comparable headline about Bush would read ' ... according to the poll Americans find Bush to be a liar and an idiot.' " I'm tempted to refer all these correspondents, and the many hundreds of others they represent, to my colleague Mike Needs, ombudsman of The Akron Beacon Journal. "On Monday and Tuesday," Mike wrote in an e-mail last week, "my calls were all from conservatives saying the paper leaned left."
It's a truism (or ought to be) that our opinions and conclusions are influenced by subjective bias.
Conservatives thought Cheney won the vice-presidential debate; liberals thought Edwards did. I can look at pictures of my children and see that they are flawless; you will see them differently (even though they are, of course, flawless). Write a book, get a lousy review - it's happened to me several times - and you challenge the reviewer's judgment, not your own. We see, and we are more vulnerable to, those things that matter most to us.
All well and good for setting the stage. He says he'll follow up with more next Sunday, but ends the column (tellingly?) with this [bold added]:
This piece turned out to be more of a rant than I intended, but given the vicious nature of some of the attacks levied against certain reporters, I wasn't inclined to be temperate. There are many critics of The Times's election coverage who are measured and reasonable, and their views - very different from my own - will be represented in this space next week. I also don't wish to discourage readers who in good faith find errors, misrepresentations or unfair characterizations. They may occur randomly, but their frequency is disappointing, and I'll continue to forward meritorious complaints to the appropriate editors and reporters. Many will find expression in the corrections column, or in this one.

But before I turn over the podium, I do want you to know just how debased the level of discourse has become. When a reporter receives an e-mail message that says, "I hope your kid gets his head blown off in a Republican war," a limit has been passed.

That's what a coward named Steve Schwenk, from San Francisco, wrote to national political correspondent Adam Nagourney several days ago because Nagourney wrote something Schwenk considered (if such a person is capable of consideration) pro-Bush. Some women reporters regularly receive sexual insults and threats. As nasty as critics on the right can get (plenty nasty), the left seems to be winning the vileness derby this year. Maybe the bloggers who encourage their readers to send this sort of thing to The Times might want to ask them instead to say it in public. I don't think they'd dare.
So there!

And Mr. Schwenk? He seems to be involved with the local Boy Scouts in San Fran. Oh, you won't find his name on that page, but if you click on the Contact List link on the left, you'll find him all right. As it turns out, he's not biased, you see -- it's everyone else that's biased! Well, that certainly clears everything up. No messy eyes or beholders either.

And speaking of rants (and beholders, and eyes) what a strange place to find a response to Okrent.

October 7, 2004

My life just sucks in 27 different ways


I really like the Foxfire browser I've been using for the last few months. But.

But it's crashed several times in the last 2 weeks, including once today. Don't know why, but I'm running the 0.93 Beta version and there's a newer one available that I'll try. Anyway, when it crashes it wipes out my cached uersernames/passwords I've got in place for when I want to click on, say an LA Times article I learned about on another blog. I don't usually visit the LA Times, so I don't want to register for it -- I use a BugMeNot username and password instead.

Which is a really long, drawn out and mangled way of saying that I can't go to that LA Times article I linked to above because a) Firefox crashed earlier today and b) BugMeNot is down so I can't get a new login. My life just sucks in 27 different ways, no?

Well not really. But I had to set it up this way so I could work the phrase "my life just sucks 27 different ways" into the post. Once the phrase is in the post I can easily use it as the title, and thus lure folks who view the trackbacks to my link to Outside the Beltway over here because the title of the post seems just so compelling. Get it?

If you're reading this because you came here from the trackback I'm really, really sorry and I promise to never do it again.

Oh -- what's this all about? Very interesting stuff from the Iraqi Survey Group report about why Saddam might have secretly destroyed his WMD but at the same time intentionally left the impression that he still had them. I highly recommend reading it, even though I can't. Well I mean I could if I wanted to register, but you get the idea.

The My Lawyer's Better Than Your Lawyer Show!


For the uninitiated, in addition to voting for Presidential candidates come November 2, Colorado voters will also choose whether or not to amend the State Constitution to change the method of apportioning Presidential electors among the various candidates. Like most states, Colorado is a "winner take all" state for the purposes of apportioning Presidential electors -- whichever candidate wins the votes gets their slate of electors appointed. The proposed amendment would apportion those electors among the various candidates. Given that there are only 9 electors to apportion, as a practical matter the winner will get 5 (or possibly 6) electors and the loser will get 4 (or possibly 3) electors. For those keeping score, George W. Bush won Colorado in 2000 and recevied all 9 electors. Had the proposed system been in effect, Bush would have received 5 electors, Gore would have received 4, and Gore would have won the election, Florida notwithstanding.

Aside from whether it's a good idea in the abstract to apportion electors, if approved, by it's own terms the proposed Amendment will go into effect immediately. That is, the new rule it establishes will be effective for the Presidential election vote taking place on the same day voters choose between Bush, Kerry, or others. And if the election is close enough for this rule to affect the outcome (as it would have in 2000), we'll be all set for another round of Reality TV show we all came to love from 2000 -- The My Lawyer's Better Than Your Lawyer Show!

Via Prof. Volokh, Politics Blog lays out the possibilities. It ain't pretty. Regardless of what you think about apportioning electors or even the electoral college itself, this is a bullet that no one needs to dodge at the moment, do we?

[Linked to the Traffic Jam.]

October 6, 2004

Fake But Accurate? Let's Make a Deal


I'll make a deal with the Democrats, the Left, and CBS. If it's ok for Dan Rather's story about Bush's service in the National Guard to be "fake but accurate", can it be ok for Bush's reasons to go into Iraq to be "fake but accurate" too?

[Linked to the Beltway Traffic Jam.]

The Lazy Man's Way to Blog


Time has not been on my side today and now I'm rushed to post before the Yanks and Twins go at it again. How rushed am I? It's well after 7 and I haven't even finished my second beer -- THAT rushed.

Instapundit links to this Bill Whittle essay (actually, that's Part II -- Part I is here) on the War and the election. I don't agree with some of Whittle's essays, and some of that is only a disagreement with wording. But he makes the case well, at least for me. I was going to quickly excerpt some of it but after I spent 15 minutes cutting and pasting I gave up. There's just too much to quote. So anyone wanting to know how I think about the subject (more or less) should read it.

October 5, 2004

Strike Three


I've been trying to multi-task, switching back and forth between the Yanks/Twins game and the VP debate. I'm giving up on the Veep thing though.

Cheney gets a pointed question to start the thing off ("what about what Bremer said today?") and he ignores the question. Some 20 minutes later Edwards is asked "why do you guys say you'll get all this international cooperation to 'do the job right' when all the countries you're thinking of say they won't cooperate?". Edwards blows that off as if he was 14 years old and his mother was asking him when he would make his bed. Cheney gets a chance to respond, and doesn't cream Edwards directly for blowing her (the questioner) off, but instead rambles into a bunch of talking points.

This is why I hate (presidential election) debates. One of these days someone is going to figure out how to actually answer a direct question with a direct answer, and that someone will be elected with 110% of the vote. Taking all of the fraud into account, of course.

Talking Baseball and Red Meat


Back in August I linked to Batgirl, the oustanding blog of a Minnesota Twins fan. With the Twins facing the Yankees this week in a best of five series, AllBaseball.com is running a series of email exchanges between the Batgirl and Alex Belth of Bronx Banter, and it lives up to the billing. This from Batgirl:
Yes, I know NYC has two baseball teams, but I?m pretty sure the Mets fans need help, too. Which reminds me: when you?re born in New York, how do you choose whether or not to be a Yankees or a Mets fan? Are you assigned at birth? Do you draw a name out of a hat, or maybe pick a number? Or do some people just like teams that spend absurd amounts of money and win all the time, while others find themselves inexplicably drawn to teams that spend absurd amounts of money and are kind of mediocre?
And Alex:
So yeah, Yankee fans have a different kind of team to root for than you do, where fresh-faced young bucks pop up each season. Instead, we?ve got Prime A Beef. Aged beef. It?s Boffo, baby. Sheffield and Rodriguez and Matsui: Filet Mignons, Rib Eye, cherce Sirloin cuts. The entire team is beefy. Even a flaco like Mariano Rivera ? he?s flank steak.
Me? I love red meat.

October 4, 2004

When I'm 64


John Lennon's birthday is this Saturday, and Ann Althouse doesn't think it's apt to call his new art retrospective "When I'm 64".

I think she's got a fair point -- that song is hardly emblamtic of John Lennon. The exhibit's name smacks of poorly thought out marketing, although I'm careful to add that who can really say?

And be sure to scroll and read the updates.

Tom Delay is a . . .


In a vain and inglorius effort to keep the wolves at bay not to mention the thorns out of my side, Tom Delay is a dick.

Even Homer Nods


It wasn't too hard today to find references Drudge's story suggesting John Kerry cheated at the debates last week, by bringing forbidden notes to the lectern.

I am so very utterly deeply unmoved. That is, except to say that even as bloggers triumphantly establish that wearing pajamas is no impediment to useful insights and contributions to the national debate, we also prove the old adage often repeated by my contracts professor -- even Homer nods.

October 2, 2004

To Type or To Word Process. That is the Question.


To type, or to word process? That is the question. Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous superscripts, or take arms against a sea of fonts . . . .

You get the idea. Lost, at least to me this week, was the news that one David Hailey, an Associate Professor at Utah State University, had performed a "forensic study" of CBS's Bush National Guard documents and concluded that they weren't digitally produced, and that there's no reason to believe from their appearance that they are inauthentic. Daily Kos lapped it up, but Wizbang exposed multiple problems with the analysis, particularly that Hailey's own reproductions of the CBS docs were themselves created on a word processor, something that Hailey didn't originally note in his paper.

Here's a good summary of the entire affair, which is still unfolding.

The fundamental point of the document's detractors is that if you can replicate a 1970's era typewritten document with little effort on a modern word processor using fonts, line spacing, centering, and other functions not found on that aged equipment, then it's unlikely that the documents were indeed created on that equipment. The proof in their instant pudding is that one can actually do exactly that with CBS's documents.

On the other hand, the essence of what Hailey's trying to say (although not very effectively) is that there's enough evidence one can glean from the face of the documents to support the inference that they are copies of documents produced on a 1972 vintage typewriter. Aside from the fact that Killian's secretary says she used a manual Olympia typewriter which could not produce these documents, Hailey hasn't answered the challenge of the detractors -- he hasn't replicated the documents using an old typewriter.

But here's a thought -- let's flip this proof around. Everyone takes for granted that creating a document on a modern word processor that is virtually identical to an old document is proof positive that the "old" document is not old at all. Is that indeed true? Can a 1970's era document (and let's start with any old but authentic document) be easily reproduced in Word? If so, then doesn't that to some degree undercut the argument that the CBS documents are necessarily inauthentic? My guess is that it is not at all easy to do, but if you're trying to establish authenticity (or at least undercut the detractor's argument) it would be a start, and a much better one than Hailey's.

October 1, 2004

Who Won The Debate?


I don't get much of a chance to talk with political strangers about the War, the election, the debates, etc. By political strangers I mean people that I may have known for years, and speak to and work with everyday, but politics just doesn't come up in conversation with them. I'm working now with a new group at my job -- all folks I've known and seen and talked with to varying degrees, but wouldn't consider close friends or anything like that. During less than five minutes of down time today we mumbled our way through a conversation on the debates. For those tracking demographics, four of us are men, three of us are married, and I'm pretty much bald athough at least one of the guys will follow in my footsteps. Going in to the conversation I had no idea how any of them thought or felt, and to be fair, that's pretty much still true.

In a nutshell, they thought Kerry sounded better than Bush, except that "He's against the War". It seemed (and again, this is from very brief conversation) that they wanted someone who would fight the War better than Bush has, but were not convinced that Kerry was the guy. I didn't get the impression they were at all satisfied with their choice come November.

Very interesting.

The Argument That Dare Not Speak Its Name


I don't have much time to blog right now but wanted to at least get something up about the debate last night before the carcass is cold.

As for substance, I'm pretty much with James Lileks' take:
But mostly I hate the debates because I simply cannot abide hearing certain statements I?ve been hearing over, and over, and over again. I can?t take any more talk about bringing allies to the table. Which ones? Brazil? Mynmar? Microfrickin?nesia? Are there some incredibly important and powerful nations out there whose existence has hitherto escaped me? Fermany? Gerance? The Galactic Order of the Belgian Dominion? Did we piss off the Vulcans? Who? If we mean ?France and Germany,? then please explain to me why the reluctant participation of these two countries somehow bestows the magic kiss of legitimacy. They want in? Fine. They don?t? Fine. At this point mooning over France is like being that sophomore loser dorm pal who spent his dateless weekends telling his loser roommate about a high school sweetheart who stood him up for the prom. Give it up. Move on. I understand; they are wise and nuanced, we are young and dumb. We?re the cowboy leaning with his back against the bar, elbows on the rail, watching the door; we need our European betters to teach us how to ape the subtle forms of Nijinsky, limbs arrayed in the exquisite form of the Dying Swan. Understood. But I don?t want to be the Dying Swan. And I don?t want posture lessons from a country that spent the last 20 years flopping on its back and grabbing its ankles when Saddam showed up waving stacks of Francs in exchange for bang-sticks. Don?t you think I know about France?s relations with Saddam? Surely the advocates of the French Touch must know, and don?t care. Or they don?t know ? in which case their advice is useless.
This is the argument that dare not speak it's name. That is, I'd love to have heard Bush say something at least a little bit like this during the debate, but it's probably beyond the ability of any sitting President to insult so much of the rest of the world, however weenie they well may be. (Caveat: this doesn't stop challenger candidates from insulting bribed and coerced . . . oh, never mind).

But beyond that, all of the talk for the last 20 some hours has been about "who won", which is really sort of silly if you think about it. The winner isn't the one that get's the best grades from the post-debate pundits, and it isn't the one that gets the nod in post-debate polls about "who won" either. Let's imagine for a moment that the Olympic figure skating finals have just concluded. Yeah, we'll listen to what Dick Button or Scott Hamilton or whoever says about the performance. And if you look around the living room some folks there might be sleeping have an opinion. But you don't know who won it until the people that actually get to say who won it in fact get around to saying who won it. In figure skating, that's the judges, and in election debating, that's the voters. No, we don't have to wait until November 2, but in a weeks time or so the dust should have settled and then we'll know if the race has tightened, and if it has, then we can probably conclude the debate had something to do with it.

[Linked to the Beltway Traffic Jam].